Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2333 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–17%.

Safest bet that day UA 2333 CHS 06:00 → ORD 07:33 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 3426 CHS 15:08 → ORD 16:54 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2333 United Flight history →	CHS 06:00	ORD 07:33	4%	2%	1.6%	87%
UA 592 United Flight history →	CHS 11:31	ORD 13:10	9%	3%	0.8%	89%
AA 3027 American Flight history →	CHS 08:56	ORD 10:30	10%	4%	1.5%	90%
AA 2452 American Flight history →	CHS 12:44	ORD 14:18	16%	5%	0.8%	87%
AA 3454 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CHS 20:21	ORD 22:00	17%	5%	2.0%	77%
UA 3426 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CHS 15:08	ORD 16:54	17%	5%	1.7%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON