tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 493 at 16:45, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 493 Southwest Flight history → CHS 16:45 STL 17:50 23% 5% 0.6% 67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Charleston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CHS 05:10 → ATL 06:17DL 3055 1h 26m Atlanta ATL 07:43 → STL 08:19DL 1571 4h 09m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → CHS 06:15 → ATL 07:25DL 2124 1h 39m Atlanta ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400 4h 28m 97% 88%
UnitedDetails → CHS 06:00 → EWR 07:59UA 1289 1h 54m Newark EWR 09:53 → STL 11:41UA 3630 · flown by Republic 6h 41m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → CHS 09:41 → ATL 11:00DL 5450 · flown by Endeavor 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 14:09 → STL 14:48DL 2700 6h 07m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → CHS 07:20 → ATL 08:36DL 1664 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 5h 57m 99% 86%
SouthwestDetails → CHS 08:00 → MDW 09:15WN 4167 1h 45m Chicago MDW 11:00 → STL 12:10WN 2901 5h 10m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → CHS 06:41 → CLT 07:47AA 3235 3h 13m Charlotte CLT 11:00 → STL 11:55AA 2717 6h 14m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → CHS 06:00 → ORD 07:33UA 2333 3h 07m Chicago ORD 10:40 → STL 12:11UA 1355 7h 11m 99% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → CHS 17:40 → DEN 19:25WN 1145 1h 20m Denver DEN 20:45 → STL 23:55WN 3317 7h 15m 72% 49%
DeltaDetails → CHS 15:42 → LGA 17:48DL 1404 1h 03m New York LGA 18:51 → STL 20:46DL 4926 · flown by Endeavor 6h 05m 70% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON