Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 1039 at 06:17, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1039 American Flight history →	CID 06:17	CLT 09:35	12%	4%	1.2%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Cedar Rapids). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CID 05:50 → ATL 08:52DL 2518	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → CLT 11:26DL 3190	4h 36m	94%	85%
United Details →	CID 06:30 → ORD 07:51UA 1499	2h 35m Chicago	ORD 10:26 → CLT 13:50UA 3450 · flown by Republic	6h 20m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	CID 06:46 → MSP 08:05DL 5248 · flown by Endeavor	2h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 10:30 → CLT 13:57DL 2819	6h 11m	94%	84%
United Details →	CID 05:30 → DEN 06:54UA 4716 · flown by SkyWest	2h 56m Denver	DEN 09:50 → CLT 15:12UA 1633	8h 42m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	CID 16:24 → MSP 17:39DL 4906 · flown by Endeavor	2h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929	6h 20m	95%	81%
American Details →	CID 05:17 → DFW 07:34AA 3473 · flown by Envoy	2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:50 → CLT 13:31AA 1857	7h 14m	97%	78%
American Details →	CID 07:28 → DFW 09:48AA 4290 · flown by Envoy	2h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696	7h 08m	97%	78%
American Details →	CID 11:49 → ORD 13:14AA 3455 · flown by Envoy	3h 31m Chicago	ORD 16:45 → CLT 19:59AA 1683	7h 10m	99%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON