Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 3462 at 12:40, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3462 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CID 12:40	DCA 15:59	15%	6%	1.5%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Cedar Rapids). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	CID 08:00 → ORD 09:23UA 656	1h 52m Chicago	ORD 11:15 → DCA 14:22UA 2668	5h 22m	100%	84%
United Details →	CID 05:30 → DEN 06:54UA 4716 · flown by SkyWest	2h 36m Denver	DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789	8h 29m	97%	84%
American Details →	CID 06:04 → ORD 07:29AA 2475	3h 16m Chicago	ORD 10:45 → DCA 13:59AA 4809 · flown by Republic	6h 55m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	CID 06:46 → MSP 08:05DL 5248 · flown by Endeavor	2h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983	6h 02m	93%	82%
United Details →	CID 06:30 → ORD 07:51UA 1499	2h 09m Chicago	ORD 10:00 → DCA 13:04UA 1381	5h 34m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	CID 05:50 → ATL 08:52DL 2518	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:42DL 737	5h 52m	97%	81%
American Details →	CID 05:17 → DFW 07:34AA 3473 · flown by Envoy	2h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:57 → DCA 13:59AA 1624	7h 42m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	CID 16:24 → MSP 17:39DL 4906 · flown by Endeavor	2h 51m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:56DL 2961	6h 32m	96%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	CID 14:33 → ORD 16:00UA 4691 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 17:00 → DCA 20:10UA 456	4h 37m	74%	58%
Delta Details →	CID 12:09 → MSP 13:26DL 4899 · flown by Endeavor	1h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963	5h 00m	70%	57%
Delta Details →	CID 16:24 → MSP 17:39DL 4906 · flown by Endeavor	56m Minneapolis	MSP 18:35 → DCA 22:02DL 2962	4h 38m	54%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON