Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 4716 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 4716 CID 05:30 → DEN 06:54 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 5273 CID 18:05 → DEN 19:29 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4716 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CID 05:30	DEN 06:54	7%	4%	0.7%	94%
UA 1500 United Flight history →	CID 08:50	DEN 10:04	12%	4%	0.8%	82%
UA 514 United Flight history →	CID 15:16	DEN 16:31	19%	7%	0.7%	79%
UA 5273 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CID 18:05	DEN 19:29	20%	9%	0.6%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON