Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3473 CID 05:17 → DFW 07:34 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2384 CID 12:20 → DFW 14:34 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3473 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CID 05:17	DFW 07:34	8%	3%	1.0%	93%
AA 4290 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CID 07:28	DFW 09:48	9%	3%	1.0%	89%
AA 3461 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CID 18:04	DFW 20:21	15%	5%	1.0%	72%
AA 2384 American Flight history →	CID 12:20	DFW 14:34	17%	8%	1.1%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON