Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1499 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 1499 CID 06:30 → ORD 07:51 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest UA 4723 CID 18:33 → ORD 20:00 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1499 United Flight history →	CID 06:30	ORD 07:51	10%	4%	0.9%	83%
AA 2475 American Flight history →	CID 06:04	ORD 07:29	12%	4%	2.9%	87%
UA 656 United Flight history →	CID 08:00	ORD 09:23	14%	5%	0.9%	75%
AA 3455 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CID 11:49	ORD 13:14	15%	5%	1.7%	81%
UA 4691 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CID 14:33	ORD 16:00	26%	10%	1.5%	65%
AA 3458 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CID 18:51	ORD 20:35	28%	7%	2.2%	80%
UA 4723 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CID 18:33	ORD 20:00	34%	12%	1.9%	56%
UA 4595 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CID 10:57	ORD 12:29	19%	7%	0.0%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON