Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4983 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CID 07:50	PHX 09:16	9%	5%	1.0%	86%
AA 4081 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CID 14:40	PHX 16:00	16%	4%	0.8%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Cedar Rapids). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CID 06:46 → MSP 08:05DL 5248 · flown by Endeavor	3h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274	8h 00m	96%	83%
United Details →	CID 05:30 → DEN 06:54UA 4716 · flown by SkyWest	1h 06m Denver	DEN 08:00 → PHX 09:00UA 1481	5h 30m	93%	83%
Delta Details →	CID 05:50 → ATL 08:52DL 2518	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	8h 13m	97%	82%
American Details →	CID 05:17 → DFW 07:34AA 3473 · flown by Envoy	3h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:50 → PHX 11:19AA 2990	8h 02m	97%	79%
United Details →	CID 06:30 → ORD 07:51UA 1499	1h 11m Chicago	ORD 09:02 → PHX 11:03UA 2225	6h 33m	93%	78%
American Details →	CID 06:17 → CLT 09:35AA 1039	2h 02m Charlotte	CLT 11:37 → PHX 12:56AA 588	8h 39m	94%	77%
United Details →	CID 08:50 → DEN 10:04UA 1500	1h 21m Denver	DEN 11:25 → PHX 12:25UA 1686	5h 35m	93%	77%
United Details →	CID 10:57 → ORD 12:29UA 4595 · flown by GoJet	3h 33m Chicago	ORD 16:02 → PHX 17:53UA 2053	8h 56m	96%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CID 16:24 → MSP 17:39DL 4906 · flown by Endeavor	1h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 18:48 → PHX 20:06DL 2297	5h 42m	65%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON