Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2632 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 2632 CLE 05:01 → CLT 06:42 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 1679 CLE 19:31 → CLT 21:16 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2632 American Flight history →	CLE 05:01	CLT 06:42	5%	2%	0.7%	94%
AA 2021 American Flight history →	CLE 08:06	CLT 09:50	11%	3%	0.7%	86%
AA 1677 American Flight history →	CLE 12:08	CLT 13:47	14%	4%	0.7%	67%
AA 1681 American Flight history →	CLE 15:54	CLT 17:40	18%	5%	0.7%	70%
AA 1679 American Flight history →	CLE 19:31	CLT 21:16	23%	5%	0.7%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON