Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5411 at 05:22 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 5411 CLE 05:22 → DCA 06:49 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 5132 CLE 20:01 → DCA 21:30 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5411 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLE 05:22	DCA 06:49	7%	4%	1.5%	83%
AA 4737 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 08:46	DCA 10:09	7%	2%	0.5%	90%
AA 5126 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLE 14:10	DCA 15:40	25%	9%	1.4%	42%
AA 5470 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLE 17:04	DCA 18:36	28%	10%	1.5%	57%
AA 5132 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLE 20:01	DCA 21:30	30%	10%	1.8%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON