Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3930 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 3930 CLE 05:30 → DEN 06:40 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 2887 CLE 17:55 → DEN 19:10 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3930 Southwest Flight history →	CLE 05:30	DEN 06:40	3%	1%	0.5%	96%
UA 690 United Flight history →	CLE 08:55	DEN 10:10	6%	2%	0.5%	92%
UA 2246 United Flight history →	CLE 11:10	DEN 12:26	7%	3%	0.5%	89%
UA 486 United Flight history →	CLE 16:38	DEN 18:03	12%	5%	0.5%	82%
F9 4639 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 12:03	DEN 13:29	14%	5%	0.8%	82%
WN 2887 Southwest Flight history →	CLE 17:55	DEN 19:10	25%	5%	0.5%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON