Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 10–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3532 CLE 06:40 → DTW 07:42 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest DL 3559 CLE 14:20 → DTW 15:20 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3532 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CLE 06:40	DTW 07:42	10%	5%	0.5%	86%
DL 3817 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CLE 08:18	DTW 09:19	12%	6%	0.5%	81%
DL 3581 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CLE 15:50	DTW 17:01	12%	7%	0.5%	81%
DL 3559 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CLE 14:20	DTW 15:20	13%	7%	0.5%	81%
DL 5192 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 10:26	DTW 11:26	17%	10%	0.0%	83%
DL 4957 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 19:59	DTW 21:04	43%	26%	2.1%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON