Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 601 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 601 CLE 07:15 → EWR 08:47 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 554 CLE 18:54 → EWR 20:31 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 601 United Flight history →	CLE 07:15	EWR 08:47	6%	2%	0.8%	94%
UA 2468 United Flight history →	CLE 08:19	EWR 09:52	7%	3%	0.8%	92%
UA 3424 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 11:50	EWR 13:29	9%	3%	1.4%	89%
UA 1892 United Flight history →	CLE 15:19	EWR 17:00	22%	7%	0.8%	77%
UA 3633 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 17:42	EWR 19:30	24%	7%	1.8%	80%
UA 554 United Flight history →	CLE 18:54	EWR 20:31	29%	10%	1.0%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON