Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4476 CLE 10:34 → JFK 12:19 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 4389 CLE 17:05 → JFK 18:59 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4476 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 10:34	JFK 12:19	7%	3%	1.0%	88%
B6 2769 JetBlue Flight history →	CLE 06:25	JFK 08:02	9%	4%	1.2%	92%
AA 4389 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 17:05	JFK 18:59	15%	6%	1.2%	71%
DL 5008 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 06:45	JFK 08:30	10%	6%	4.3%	90%
DL 5018 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 11:46	JFK 13:29	17%	9%	4.0%	83%
DL 4975 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 17:15	JFK 19:09	28%	11%	8.7%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON