Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: F9 3231 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–33%.

Safest bet that day F9 3231 CLE 09:00 → LAS 10:32 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest F9 1821 CLE 21:43 → LAS 23:16 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 3231 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 09:00	LAS 10:32	19%	6%	1.0%	76%
WN 1158 Southwest Flight history →	CLE 15:05	LAS 16:30	23%	7%	0.6%	83%
F9 1821 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 21:43	LAS 23:16	33%	11%	1.4%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	CLE 05:30 → DEN 06:40WN 3930	1h 00m Denver	DEN 07:40 → LAS 08:35WN 1559	6h 05m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	CLE 06:40 → DTW 07:42DL 3532 · flown by SkyWest	1h 17m Detroit	DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334	6h 32m	91%	81%
United Details →	CLE 08:55 → DEN 10:10UA 690	1h 12m Denver	DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526	6h 29m	96%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON