Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 776 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 776 CLE 07:00 → LAX 08:56 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AA 650 CLE 18:43 → LAX 20:26 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 776 United Flight history →	CLE 07:00	LAX 08:56	8%	2%	0.6%	78%
UA 679 United Flight history →	CLE 15:42	LAX 17:38	10%	3%	0.6%	92%
AA 650 American Flight history →	CLE 18:43	LAX 20:26	29%	7%	0.7%	63%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	CLE 05:30 → DEN 06:40WN 3930	1h 10m Denver	DEN 07:50 → LAX 09:20WN 1568	6h 50m	98%	86%
Southwest Details →	CLE 06:50 → BNA 07:20WN 4568	55m Nashville	BNA 08:15 → LAX 10:30WN 991	6h 40m	97%	84%
Southwest Details →	CLE 06:25 → STL 07:00WN 1165	1h 10m St Louis	STL 08:10 → LAX 10:05WN 3937	6h 40m	99%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON