Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4677 at 05:18 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 4677 CLE 05:18 → LGA 06:59 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 4758 CLE 16:02 → LGA 17:49 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4677 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 05:18	LGA 06:59	4%	2%	1.2%	91%
AA 4388 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 13:59	LGA 15:43	15%	8%	1.2%	73%
AA 4758 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 16:02	LGA 17:49	22%	10%	1.3%	70%
DL 5177 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 06:00	LGA 07:42	13%	7%	6.3%	87%
DL 5242 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 16:15	LGA 18:00	16%	10%	10.6%	84%
DL 5193 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 10:17	LGA 11:59	19%	15%	2.1%	81%
DL 5045 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 13:00	LGA 14:51	26%	14%	7.5%	74%
DL 5174 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 19:26	LGA 21:14	46%	28%	18.8%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON