Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2636 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 2636 CLE 08:00 → MCO 10:27 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 2280 CLE 21:47 → MCO 00:21 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2636 United Flight history →	CLE 08:00	MCO 10:27	7%	3%	13.2%	92%
F9 2668 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 06:00	MCO 08:31	12%	4%	15.2%	83%
UA 1488 United Flight history →	CLE 12:16	MCO 14:43	14%	5%	16.9%	92%
F9 1056 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 08:51	MCO 11:19	22%	6%	16.9%	86%
WN 1031 Southwest Flight history →	CLE 13:05	MCO 15:30	22%	6%	17.2%	71%
F9 2280 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 21:47	MCO 00:21	27%	12%	17.5%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON