Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2887 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–43%.

Safest bet that day AA 2887 CLE 06:01 → MIA 09:00 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 3026 CLE 16:28 → MIA 19:27 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2887 American Flight history →	CLE 06:01	MIA 09:00	10%	3%	1.2%	96%
AA 4057 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLE 19:08	MIA 22:04	36%	12%	1.9%	78%worse than usual
F9 3026 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 16:28	MIA 19:27	43%	18%	1.7%	75%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON