tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via BWI, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 94% chance of reaching Myrtle Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → CLE 06:00 → BWI 07:20WN 1153 1h 00m Baltimore BWI 08:20 → MYR 09:55WN 2997 3h 55m 100% 94%
SouthwestDetails → CLE 06:50 → BNA 07:20WN 4568 3h 40m Nashville BNA 11:00 → MYR 13:25WN 2412 6h 35m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → CLE 08:06 → CLT 09:50AA 2021 1h 30m Charlotte CLT 11:20 → MYR 12:36AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont 4h 30m 93% 86%
DeltaDetails → CLE 07:05 → ATL 08:55DL 2838 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182 5h 55m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → CLE 06:04 → ORD 06:30AA 1315 2h 30m Chicago ORD 09:00 → MYR 12:22AA 3733 · flown by Envoy 6h 18m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → CLE 05:22 → DCA 06:49AA 5411 · flown by PSA 2h 55m Washington DCA 09:44 → MYR 11:22AA 5300 · flown by PSA 6h 00m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22DL 2734 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 09:30 → MYR 10:47DL 3047 5h 12m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → CLE 07:00 → ORD 07:36UA 490 3h 24m Chicago ORD 11:00 → MYR 14:19UA 1332 7h 19m 99% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON