Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1315 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 1315 CLE 06:04 → ORD 06:30 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 4909 CLE 18:05 → ORD 18:59 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1315 American Flight history →	CLE 06:04	ORD 06:30	8%	3%	1.5%	86%
UA 5265 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CLE 06:00	ORD 06:40	8%	4%	1.3%	86%
UA 490 United Flight history →	CLE 07:00	ORD 07:36	8%	2%	0.7%	86%
UA 609 United Flight history →	CLE 10:53	ORD 11:29	9%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 1355 United Flight history →	CLE 09:00	ORD 09:34	12%	3%	0.6%	81%
AA 6363 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CLE 09:44	ORD 10:30	13%	6%	1.1%	76%
UA 3575 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLE 16:15	ORD 17:00	14%	5%	1.4%	86%
AA 4949 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CLE 14:32	ORD 15:19	16%	7%	1.2%	76%
UA 2443 United Flight history →	CLE 14:05	ORD 14:41	16%	5%	0.6%	68%
AA 3466 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLE 20:47	ORD 21:31	21%	6%	2.0%	77%
UA 1084 United Flight history →	CLE 19:40	ORD 20:20	22%	6%	0.6%	60%
UA 1673 United Flight history →	CLE 18:05	ORD 18:44	24%	6%	0.6%	53%
AA 4909 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CLE 18:05	ORD 18:59	25%	9%	1.4%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON