Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3277 at 06:29 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Safest bet that day AA 3277 CLE 06:29 → PHL 07:58 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 5129 CLE 17:12 → PHL 18:47 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3277 American Flight history →	CLE 06:29	PHL 07:58	9%	3%	0.8%	97%
AA 5129 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLE 17:12	PHL 18:47	22%	10%	1.6%	64%
AA 5847 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 10:52	PHL 12:28	9%	5%	1.5%	91%
AA 5862 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 19:31	PHL 21:09	20%	9%	9.2%	80%
AA 5861 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 15:03	PHL 16:43	36%	17%	4.1%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON