Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3110 at 07:36 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 3110 CLE 07:36 → PHX 08:55 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest F9 2697 CLE 21:17 → PHX 22:31 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3110 American Flight history →	CLE 07:36	PHX 08:55	13%	3%	0.6%	86%
WN 4967 Southwest Flight history →	CLE 16:00	PHX 17:10	25%	8%	0.6%	55%
F9 2697 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 21:17	PHX 22:31	30%	10%	1.2%	82%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	CLE 06:40 → DTW 07:42DL 3532 · flown by SkyWest	53m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44DL 1070	6h 04m	88%	78%
American Details →	CLE 06:04 → ORD 06:30AA 1315	55m Chicago	ORD 07:25 → PHX 09:09AA 769	6h 05m	91%	75%
American Details →	CLE 11:51 → DFW 13:42AA 1680	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:30 → PHX 14:57AA 2108	6h 06m	76%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON