tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 274 Alaska Flight history → CLE 07:03 SEA 09:11 16% 3% 0.7% 73%
AS 216 Alaska Flight history → CLE 17:32 SEA 19:41 31% 7% 0.8% 59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15UA 1252 1h 45m Dulles IAD 09:00 → SEA 11:51UA 2101 8h 51m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:04DL 1357 2h 01m Minneapolis MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868 7h 59m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22DL 2734 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774 9h 38m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → CLE 07:05 → ATL 08:55DL 2838 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → SEA 13:35DL 648 9h 30m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → CLE 08:05 → ATL 09:55DL 349 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629 9h 45m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → CLE 10:37 → IAD 11:53UA 445 1h 17m Dulles IAD 13:10 → SEA 15:55UA 2241 8h 18m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:05 → BOS 08:07DL 5684 · flown by Republic 3h 22m Boston BOS 11:29 → SEA 14:50DL 332 11h 45m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → CLE 07:00 → LAX 08:56UA 776 2h 47m Los Angeles LAX 11:43 → SEA 14:36UA 325 10h 36m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → CLE 17:12 → PHL 18:47AA 5129 · flown by PSA 48m Philadelphia PHL 19:35 → SEA 22:56AA 3259 8h 44m 72% 52%
AmericanDetails → CLE 19:52 → DFW 21:48AA 1682 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:41 → SEA 00:57 +1AA 1487 8h 05m 72% 46%
JetBlueDetails → CLE 16:38 → BOS 18:29B6 640 1h 00m Boston BOS 19:29 → SEA 22:54B6 197 9h 16m 71% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON