tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:35, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2153 United Flight history → CLE 07:00 SFO 09:12 6% 2% 0.6% 95%
UA 234 United Flight history → CLE 17:40 SFO 19:55 15% 5% 0.6% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CLE 06:00 → IAD 07:15UA 1252 1h 20m Dulles IAD 08:35 → SFO 11:19UA 1147 8h 19m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:04DL 1357 3h 56m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 10h 09m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22DL 2734 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693 7h 45m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → CLE 10:37 → IAD 11:53UA 445 2h 58m Dulles IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 10h 01m 100% 82%
JetBlueDetails → CLE 06:25 → JFK 08:02B6 2769 2h 28m New York JFK 10:30 → SFO 14:08B6 215 10h 43m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → CLE 10:48 → MSP 11:49DL 2847 3h 18m Minneapolis MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756 9h 24m 100% 80%
SouthwestDetails → CLE 06:25 → STL 07:00WN 1165 1h 15m St Louis STL 08:15 → SFO 10:20WN 3982 6h 55m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → CLE 19:55 → IAD 21:19UA 3433 · flown by Republic 1h 02m Dulles IAD 22:21 → SFO 01:15 +1UA 367 8h 20m 92% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → CLE 10:26 → DTW 11:27DL 5192 · flown by Endeavor 48m Detroit DTW 12:15 → SFO 14:17DL 469 6h 51m 74% 57%
AlaskaDetails → CLE 17:32 → SEA 19:41AS 216 1h 01m Seattle SEA 20:42 → SFO 22:55AS 590 8h 23m 70% 41%
AmericanDetails → CLE 15:03 → PHL 16:43AA 5861 · flown by Piedmont 52m Philadelphia PHL 17:35 → SFO 20:47AA 2663 8h 44m 59% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON