tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1165 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1165 Southwest Flight history → CLE 06:25 STL 07:00 2% 1% 0.5% 90%
WN 747 Southwest Flight history → CLE 20:25 STL 21:00 13% 5% 0.5% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → CLE 06:00 → BWI 07:20WN 1153 2h 15m Baltimore BWI 09:35 → STL 10:50WN 1110 5h 50m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → CLE 06:00 → MSP 07:04DL 1357 1h 51m Minneapolis MSP 08:55 → STL 10:28DL 3188 5h 28m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → CLE 05:35 → ATL 07:22DL 2734 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400 5h 08m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → CLE 07:05 → ATL 08:55DL 2838 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 6h 12m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → CLE 08:18 → DTW 09:19DL 3817 · flown by SkyWest 3h 09m Detroit DTW 12:28 → STL 13:05DL 1371 5h 47m 98% 86%
SouthwestDetails → CLE 08:55 → MDW 09:10WN 4171 3h 50m Chicago MDW 13:00 → STL 14:10WN 2902 6h 15m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → CLE 07:15 → EWR 08:47UA 601 1h 06m Newark EWR 09:53 → STL 11:41UA 3630 · flown by Republic 5h 26m 94% 85%
UnitedDetails → CLE 07:00 → ORD 07:36UA 490 3h 04m Chicago ORD 10:40 → STL 12:11UA 1355 6h 11m 99% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON