Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: F9 3679 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–35%.

Safest bet that day F9 3679 CLE 06:30 → TPA 09:02 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest F9 1491 CLE 18:20 → TPA 20:57 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 3679 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 06:30	TPA 09:02	15%	5%	17.4%	86%
F9 2919 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 14:04	TPA 16:38	28%	11%	17.3%	76%
F9 1491 Frontier Flight history →	CLE 18:20	TPA 20:57	35%	12%	17.3%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON