Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 3863 at 11:03, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3863 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLT 11:03	ACK 13:20	15%	4%	0.8%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nantucket on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CLT 05:45 → PHL 07:27AA 2727	3h 23m Philadelphia	PHL 10:50 → ACK 12:26AA 4735 · flown by Republic	6h 41m	99%	92%
American Details →	CLT 09:29 → PHL 11:12AA 2291	2h 21m Philadelphia	PHL 13:33 → ACK 15:08AA 4545 · flown by Republic	5h 39m	98%	89%
American Details →	CLT 07:05 → LGA 09:01AA 2043	3h 37m New York	LGA 12:38 → ACK 14:01AA 4546 · flown by Republic	6h 56m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	CLT 07:00 → LGA 08:57DL 5599 · flown by Republic	1h 13m New York	LGA 10:10 → ACK 11:32DL 5712 · flown by Republic	4h 32m	94%	81%
American Details →	CLT 11:39 → LGA 13:35AA 2033	3h 20m New York	LGA 16:55 → ACK 18:21AA 4525 · flown by Republic	6h 42m	98%	80%
American Details →	CLT 11:15 → DCA 12:59AA 5527 · flown by PSA	2h 00m Washington	DCA 14:59 → ACK 16:40AA 4553 · flown by Republic	5h 25m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	CLT 10:01 → JFK 11:59DL 5052 · flown by Endeavor	1h 11m New York	JFK 13:10 → ACK 14:41DL 5804 · flown by Republic	4h 40m	88%	77%
Delta Details →	CLT 09:36 → LGA 11:32DL 5068 · flown by Endeavor	2h 48m New York	LGA 14:20 → ACK 15:48DL 5767 · flown by Republic	6h 12m	95%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON