Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1352 at 08:55 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 1352 CLT 08:55 → ALB 10:52 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 1858 CLT 20:40 → ALB 22:39 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1352 American Flight history →	CLT 08:55	ALB 10:52	12%	2%	0.7%	86%
AA 3294 American Flight history →	CLT 16:40	ALB 18:45	22%	6%	0.7%	73%
AA 1858 American Flight history →	CLT 20:40	ALB 22:39	28%	6%	0.7%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON