Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 3186 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 3186 CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 5528 CLT 20:30 → ATL 21:52 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3186 Delta Flight history →	CLT 05:30	ATL 06:41	4%	2%	0.7%	96%
DL 3156 Delta Flight history →	CLT 08:01	ATL 09:15	10%	3%	0.7%	92%
DL 3174 Delta Flight history →	CLT 09:43	ATL 11:00	10%	3%	0.7%	81%
DL 2275 Delta Flight history →	CLT 06:59	ATL 08:13	10%	3%	0.7%	86%
AA 5039 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 09:10	ATL 10:41	11%	3%	0.8%	88%
DL 3190 Delta Flight history →	CLT 12:19	ATL 13:32	11%	3%	0.7%	87%
DL 2157 Delta Flight history →	CLT 14:22	ATL 15:37	15%	4%	0.7%	80%
DL 3032 Delta Flight history →	CLT 16:49	ATL 18:10	19%	4%	0.7%	62%
AA 5041 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 13:10	ATL 14:35	19%	5%	0.8%	66%
DL 2132 Delta Flight history →	CLT 19:50	ATL 21:13	19%	5%	0.7%	57%
AA 5498 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 22:36	ATL 23:58	21%	7%	1.0%	70%
AA 5040 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 16:46	ATL 18:14	25%	6%	0.8%	46%
AA 5528 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 20:30	ATL 21:52	28%	7%	0.9%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON