Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 5021 at 14:06, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 5021 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 14:06	ATW 15:28	24%	7%	1.3%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Appleton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Appleton is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180	2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:35 → ATW 12:09AA 3977 · flown by Envoy	7h 24m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405	2h 18m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → ATW 10:29DL 4440 · flown by SkyWest	5h 29m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	1h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 09:32 → ATW 10:47DL 4951 · flown by Endeavor	5h 27m	97%	82%
American Details →	CLT 18:26 → ORD 19:51AA 2488	3h 09m Chicago	ORD 23:00 → ATW 00:10 +1AA 3790 · flown by Envoy	6h 44m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	CLT 11:14 → MSP 13:00DL 1827	1h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 14:20 → ATW 15:30DL 3861 · flown by SkyWest	5h 16m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	CLT 17:02 → DTW 18:52DL 1430	2h 17m Detroit	DTW 21:09 → ATW 21:37DL 4159 · flown by SkyWest	5h 35m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	CLT 16:49 → ATL 18:10DL 3032	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 21:16 → ATW 22:31DL 2945	6h 42m	96%	80%
United Details →	CLT 18:40 → ORD 20:18UA 5751 · flown by SkyWest	1h 42m Chicago	ORD 22:00 → ATW 23:23UA 4495 · flown by GoJet	5h 43m	100%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON