Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1419 at 10:23 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 1419 CLT 10:23 → AUS 12:15 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 434 CLT 20:29 → AUS 22:17 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1419 American Flight history →	CLT 10:23	AUS 12:15	14%	3%	0.7%	85%
AA 1408 American Flight history →	CLT 14:56	AUS 16:45	24%	6%	0.7%	69%
AA 1905 American Flight history →	CLT 19:01	AUS 20:57	27%	7%	0.8%	58%
AA 434 American Flight history →	CLT 20:29	AUS 22:17	30%	8%	0.8%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON