Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1449 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24%.

Safest bet that day AA 1449 CLT 07:30 → BDL 09:28 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 2169 CLT 19:48 → BDL 21:48 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1449 American Flight history →	CLT 07:30	BDL 09:28	9%	1%	0.7%	96%
AA 1448 American Flight history →	CLT 11:51	BDL 13:50	14%	3%	0.7%	63%
AA 1443 American Flight history →	CLT 14:30	BDL 16:30	20%	4%	0.7%	70%
AA 2763 American Flight history →	CLT 21:01	BDL 23:00	24%	5%	0.7%	53%
AA 2169 American Flight history →	CLT 19:48	BDL 21:48	24%	6%	0.7%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON