Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2349 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 2349 CLT 07:05 → BHM 07:46 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 362 CLT 22:28 → BHM 23:00 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2349 American Flight history →	CLT 07:05	BHM 07:46	7%	2%	0.8%	94%
AA 4932 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CLT 11:30	BHM 12:09	16%	5%	0.6%	87%
AA 5075 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 13:40	BHM 14:14	18%	7%	0.7%	62%
AA 5077 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 17:33	BHM 18:08	21%	7%	0.8%	54%
AA 362 American Flight history →	CLT 22:28	BHM 23:00	23%	7%	0.8%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON