Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1167 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 1167 CLT 06:35 → BNA 07:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 1168 CLT 21:15 → BNA 21:45 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 32% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1167 Southwest Flight history →	CLT 06:35	BNA 07:00	4%	1%	0.6%	88%
AA 5083 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 09:05	BNA 09:49	11%	3%	1.4%	84%
AA 5082 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 11:20	BNA 12:02	14%	4%	1.3%	79%
AA 3047 American Flight history →	CLT 13:02	BNA 13:30	16%	5%	0.7%	64%
AA 1644 American Flight history →	CLT 21:59	BNA 22:25	19%	7%	0.7%	62%
AA 1526 American Flight history →	CLT 15:08	BNA 15:36	20%	6%	0.7%	53%
AA 526 American Flight history →	CLT 23:17	BNA 23:48	22%	7%	0.8%	71%
AA 1497 American Flight history →	CLT 18:00	BNA 18:34	24%	8%	0.7%	58%
WN 914 Southwest Flight history →	CLT 16:00	BNA 16:30	28%	7%	0.6%	40%
WN 1168 Southwest Flight history →	CLT 21:15	BNA 21:45	30%	8%	0.6%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON