Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 5648 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 5648 CLT 06:05 → BOS 08:31 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1552 CLT 15:45 → BOS 18:04 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5648 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 06:05	BOS 08:31	4%	2%	0.7%	92%
AA 1548 American Flight history →	CLT 07:06	BOS 09:19	7%	3%	0.7%	92%
AA 1533 American Flight history →	CLT 08:55	BOS 11:08	8%	3%	0.7%	96%
DL 5626 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 09:40	BOS 12:06	9%	3%	0.7%	89%
AA 1611 American Flight history →	CLT 11:18	BOS 13:33	11%	5%	0.7%	89%
DL 5630 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 13:20	BOS 15:56	15%	5%	0.7%	73%
DL 5837 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 17:34	BOS 20:15	18%	7%	0.7%	64%
AA 1573 American Flight history →	CLT 13:37	BOS 15:53	18%	7%	0.7%	67%
AA 1843 American Flight history →	CLT 22:26	BOS 00:37	21%	7%	0.7%	71%
AA 1422 American Flight history →	CLT 17:47	BOS 20:10	23%	10%	0.7%	51%
AA 2595 American Flight history →	CLT 18:34	BOS 20:59	24%	9%	0.7%	59%
AA 1552 American Flight history →	CLT 15:45	BOS 18:04	25%	10%	0.7%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON