Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1616 at 11:06 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 1616 CLT 11:06 → BUF 12:51 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1614 CLT 16:50 → BUF 18:43 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1616 American Flight history →	CLT 11:06	BUF 12:51	13%	4%	0.8%	89%
AA 703 American Flight history →	CLT 21:05	BUF 22:51	23%	9%	0.9%	71%
AA 1614 American Flight history →	CLT 16:50	BUF 18:43	25%	9%	1.1%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON