Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4695 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 4695 CLT 07:10 → BWI 08:45 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 478 CLT 19:50 → BWI 21:25 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4695 Southwest Flight history →	CLT 07:10	BWI 08:45	6%	2%	0.7%	93%
AA 1635 American Flight history →	CLT 08:00	BWI 09:26	11%	3%	0.7%	87%
AA 846 American Flight history →	CLT 11:35	BWI 13:03	16%	4%	0.7%	76%
WN 477 Southwest Flight history →	CLT 13:10	BWI 14:40	23%	5%	0.6%	80%
AA 1495 American Flight history →	CLT 19:01	BWI 20:36	24%	9%	0.7%	67%
AA 1622 American Flight history →	CLT 16:15	BWI 17:48	24%	8%	0.7%	64%
F9 3076 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 13:38	BWI 15:17	26%	9%	1.2%	76%
AA 1318 American Flight history →	CLT 22:45	BWI 00:14	26%	7%	0.7%	74%
WN 478 Southwest Flight history →	CLT 19:50	BWI 21:25	35%	10%	0.7%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON