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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:59, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Bozeman on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLT 06:59 → ATL 08:13DL 2275 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 11:09 → BZN 13:11DL 406 8h 12m 100% 88%
SouthwestDetails → CLT 07:35 → MDW 08:40WN 3048 2h 20m Chicago MDW 11:00 → BZN 13:10WN 1139 7h 35m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491 56m Minneapolis MSP 08:55 → BZN 10:24DL 1226 6h 04m 93% 86%
UnitedDetails → CLT 08:05 → ORD 09:22UA 2771 3h 23m Chicago ORD 12:45 → BZN 15:13UA 623 9h 08m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → CLT 18:10 → SLC 20:29DL 2070 2h 36m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 8h 13m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963 3h 17m Denver DEN 13:44 → BZN 15:33UA 513 8h 53m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180 1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:40 → BZN 10:47AA 1653 7h 02m 95% 84%
AmericanDetails → CLT 07:41 → DFW 09:36AA 1707 3h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:19 → BZN 15:22AA 1647 9h 41m 99% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON