Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 17–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5118 CLT 13:26 → CHS 14:41 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest AA 1659 CLT 20:57 → CHS 22:03 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5118 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 13:26	CHS 14:41	17%	6%	1.2%	71%
AA 1666 American Flight history →	CLT 08:59	CHS 10:07	18%	3%	1.8%	85%
AA 1658 American Flight history →	CLT 11:10	CHS 12:19	18%	5%	0.9%	84%
AA 5672 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 16:27	CHS 17:46	20%	6%	1.2%	69%
AA 5086 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 18:00	CHS 19:17	22%	8%	1.2%	52%
AA 1141 American Flight history →	CLT 22:50	CHS 23:59	25%	7%	0.9%	67%
AA 1659 American Flight history →	CLT 20:57	CHS 22:03	26%	8%	0.9%	54%
AA 5817 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CLT 07:10	CHS 08:23	13%	0%	0.0%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON