Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 1887 at 20:45, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1887 American Flight history →	CLT 20:45	CID 22:03	25%	8%	1.0%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cedar Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cedar Rapids is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CLT 11:30 → DFW 13:16AA 1285	2h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:28 → CID 17:33AA 3461 · flown by Envoy	7h 03m	99%	83%
American Details →	CLT 08:00 → DCA 09:33AA 1977	1h 06m Washington	DCA 10:39 → CID 12:10AA 3462 · flown by Envoy	5h 10m	91%	83%
American Details →	CLT 15:04 → DFW 16:58AA 1709	2h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:55 → CID 22:03AA 4291 · flown by Envoy	7h 59m	99%	81%
American Details →	CLT 13:05 → ORD 14:20AA 836	2h 39m Chicago	ORD 16:59 → CID 18:20AA 3458 · flown by Envoy	6h 15m	96%	80%
United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	53m Denver	DEN 11:20 → CID 14:15UA 476	6h 35m	91%	78%
American Details →	CLT 16:38 → DFW 18:36AA 2815	2h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:11 → CID 23:20AA 3798 · flown by Envoy	7h 42m	94%	78%
American Details →	CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180	1h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:34 → CID 11:35AA 2384	6h 50m	98%	78%
United Details →	CLT 08:05 → ORD 09:22UA 2771	3h 18m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → CID 13:58UA 4647 · flown by SkyWest	6h 53m	99%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON