Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1677 at 09:37 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 1677 CLT 09:37 → CLE 11:12 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest AA 3146 CLT 20:44 → CLE 22:21 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1677 American Flight history →	CLT 09:37	CLE 11:12	15%	4%	0.7%	73%
AA 1681 American Flight history →	CLT 13:27	CLE 15:01	20%	6%	0.7%	73%
AA 1679 American Flight history →	CLT 16:59	CLE 18:39	25%	7%	0.7%	60%
AA 2260 American Flight history →	CLT 22:50	CLE 00:29	27%	7%	0.7%	69%
AA 3146 American Flight history →	CLT 20:44	CLE 22:21	32%	8%	0.7%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON