Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5144 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 5144 CLT 07:10 → CMH 08:44 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 3226 CLT 22:29 → CMH 23:56 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5144 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 07:10	CMH 08:44	10%	3%	0.8%	88%
AA 2395 American Flight history →	CLT 08:59	CMH 10:25	11%	3%	0.7%	85%
AA 5134 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 13:37	CMH 15:14	16%	4%	0.7%	73%
AA 5117 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 15:19	CMH 16:56	19%	5%	0.8%	61%
AA 1540 American Flight history →	CLT 19:23	CMH 20:56	23%	6%	0.7%	63%
AA 3226 American Flight history →	CLT 22:29	CMH 23:56	24%	6%	0.7%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON