Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 3990 at 20:40, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3990 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CLT 20:40	COU 21:52	20%	6%	1.0%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbia is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180	1h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:30 → COU 11:14AA 3478 · flown by Envoy	6h 29m	98%	87%
American Details →	CLT 11:30 → DFW 13:16AA 1285	3h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:13 → COU 18:56AA 3890 · flown by Envoy	8h 26m	100%	82%
American Details →	CLT 15:04 → DFW 16:58AA 1709	3h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:33 → COU 22:20AA 4282 · flown by Envoy	8h 16m	99%	81%
American Details →	CLT 14:35 → ORD 15:56AA 2080	3h 33m Chicago	ORD 19:29 → COU 21:01AA 3745 · flown by Envoy	7h 26m	100%	81%
American Details →	CLT 13:05 → ORD 14:20AA 836	2h 09m Chicago	ORD 16:29 → COU 18:01AA 3479 · flown by Envoy	5h 56m	96%	80%
United Details →	CLT 08:05 → ORD 09:22UA 2771	3h 53m Chicago	ORD 13:15 → COU 14:50UA 5521 · flown by SkyWest	7h 45m	100%	78%
United Details →	CLT 18:40 → ORD 20:18UA 5751 · flown by SkyWest	1h 42m Chicago	ORD 22:00 → COU 23:33UA 5336 · flown by SkyWest	5h 53m	100%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON