Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2492 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 2492 CLT 07:06 → CVG 08:32 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AA 2989 CLT 20:29 → CVG 21:56 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2492 American Flight history →	CLT 07:06	CVG 08:32	8%	2%	0.7%	98%
AA 5556 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 11:35	CVG 13:13	17%	5%	0.9%	72%
AA 626 American Flight history →	CLT 22:30	CVG 23:58	27%	6%	0.7%	67%
AA 1706 American Flight history →	CLT 16:15	CVG 17:45	27%	8%	0.7%	71%
AA 2989 American Flight history →	CLT 20:29	CVG 21:56	31%	7%	0.7%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON