Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5490 at 12:02 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 5490 CLT 12:02 → DAY 13:44 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 5174 CLT 20:29 → DAY 22:09 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5490 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 12:02	DAY 13:44	13%	4%	0.8%	85%
AA 5198 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 15:30	DAY 17:12	19%	7%	0.8%	50%
AA 5435 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 18:55	DAY 20:37	22%	9%	0.9%	70%
AA 5174 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 20:29	DAY 22:09	24%	9%	0.9%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON