Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1977 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 1977 CLT 08:00 → DCA 09:33 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 3263 CLT 16:47 → DCA 18:22 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1977 American Flight history →	CLT 08:00	DCA 09:33	11%	3%	0.8%	93%
AA 2825 American Flight history →	CLT 09:21	DCA 10:50	15%	4%	0.8%	77%
AA 5527 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 11:15	DCA 12:59	15%	6%	0.7%	77%
AA 2839 American Flight history →	CLT 14:34	DCA 16:13	27%	8%	0.7%	66%
AA 1269 American Flight history →	CLT 22:27	DCA 23:53	28%	7%	0.9%	64%
AA 2386 American Flight history →	CLT 18:22	DCA 20:00	28%	10%	0.8%	58%
AA 527 American Flight history →	CLT 20:49	DCA 22:20	31%	9%	0.8%	57%
AA 3263 American Flight history →	CLT 16:47	DCA 18:22	32%	10%	0.8%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON