Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1963 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 1963 CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 1361 CLT 22:04 → DEN 23:48 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1963 United Flight history →	CLT 08:40	DEN 10:27	8%	3%	0.6%	92%
AA 1754 American Flight history →	CLT 07:39	DEN 09:10	12%	2%	0.7%	93%
AA 1758 American Flight history →	CLT 11:30	DEN 12:56	16%	4%	0.7%	81%
UA 2609 United Flight history →	CLT 16:08	DEN 17:55	17%	6%	0.6%	74%
AA 1735 American Flight history →	CLT 13:32	DEN 15:03	19%	5%	0.7%	51%
AA 3156 American Flight history →	CLT 21:39	DEN 23:09	22%	5%	0.7%	63%
AA 1736 American Flight history →	CLT 18:32	DEN 20:17	26%	7%	0.7%	49%
F9 1361 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 22:04	DEN 23:48	28%	6%	0.8%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	CLT 06:35 → BNA 07:00WN 1167	55m Nashville	BNA 07:55 → DEN 09:40WN 499	5h 05m	94%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON