Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3180 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 3180 CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2409 CLT 18:00 → DFW 20:00 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3180 American Flight history →	CLT 05:45	DFW 07:35	6%	2%	0.9%	91%
AA 1707 American Flight history →	CLT 07:41	DFW 09:36	12%	3%	0.9%	78%
AA 1276 American Flight history →	CLT 08:56	DFW 10:48	13%	3%	0.8%	79%
AA 1285 American Flight history →	CLT 11:30	DFW 13:16	15%	4%	0.8%	81%
AA 2407 American Flight history →	CLT 13:05	DFW 14:57	17%	4%	0.8%	74%
F9 3165 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 12:01	DFW 13:55	18%	5%	1.6%	73%
AA 1709 American Flight history →	CLT 15:04	DFW 16:58	19%	5%	0.8%	80%
AA 1271 American Flight history →	CLT 22:36	DFW 00:29	21%	6%	1.0%	70%
AA 2815 American Flight history →	CLT 16:38	DFW 18:36	23%	6%	0.8%	56%
AA 1698 American Flight history →	CLT 19:52	DFW 21:44	24%	7%	0.9%	50%
AA 2409 American Flight history →	CLT 18:00	DFW 20:00	25%	7%	0.9%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON