Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1763 at 11:31 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1763 American Flight history →	CLT 11:31	DSM 12:56	16%	5%	0.7%	64%
AA 2241 American Flight history →	CLT 22:44	DSM 00:09	29%	8%	0.8%	53%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 09:33 → DSM 10:45DL 1704	6h 15m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	CLT 08:01 → ATL 09:15DL 3156	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 12:25 → DSM 13:34DL 2094	6h 33m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	CLT 07:35 → MDW 08:40WN 3048	1h 30m Chicago	MDW 10:10 → DSM 11:30WN 1771	4h 55m	98%	89%
American Details →	CLT 07:46 → ORD 09:02AA 2843	2h 27m Chicago	ORD 11:29 → DSM 13:04AA 4676 · flown by Republic	6h 18m	99%	87%
United Details →	CLT 08:05 → ORD 09:22UA 2771	3h 37m Chicago	ORD 12:59 → DSM 14:27UA 1781	7h 22m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	CLT 12:19 → ATL 13:32DL 3190	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086	6h 33m	100%	83%
United Details →	CLT 08:40 → DEN 10:27UA 1963	3h 03m Denver	DEN 13:30 → DSM 16:15UA 1311	8h 35m	99%	82%
American Details →	CLT 05:45 → PHL 07:27AA 2727	3h 08m Philadelphia	PHL 10:35 → DSM 12:34AA 5165 · flown by PSA	7h 49m	98%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CLT 15:17 → LGA 17:15AA 1942	1h 14m New York	LGA 18:29 → DSM 20:51AA 4395 · flown by Republic	6h 34m	75%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON